20.500.12556/RUP-22248 The Impact of Demographic Dynamics on Household Saving in Pre-COVID-19 South Africa Vpliv demografskih dinamik na varčevanje gospodinjstev v Južni Afriki pred pandemijo covida-19 This paper examines the effect of demographic dynamics on household saving in pre-COVID-19 South Africa, across all nine provinces of South Africa. The study used panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality methods. The results revealed a longrun relationship between demographic dynamics and household saving in South Africa, showing that the White working age population had a significant effect on South Africa’s household saving in both the long-run and short-run, while the Black and Coloured working age population groups significantly impacted household saving only in the long-run. However, the Asian/Indian working age population had no effect on household saving in either the long run or short run. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causality running between Asian/Indian, Black, and Coloured population groups and household saving, while a unidirectional causality was found running from the White population group to household saving. Pričujoči članek preučuje vpliv demografskih dinamik na varčevanje gospodinjstev v Južni Afriki pred pandemijo covida-19, in sicer v vseh devetih provincah Južne Afrike. Raziskava je uporabila metodo PARDL (iz angl. panel autoregressive distributed lag) in Dumitrescu-Hurlinovo metodo panelne vzročnosti. Rezultati so pokazali dolgoročno povezavo med demografskimi dinamikami in varčevanjem gospodinjstev v Južni Afriki. Ugotovljeno je bilo, da ima delovno sposobno belo prebivalstvo pomemben vpliv na varčevanje gospodinjstev tako na dolgi kot na kratki rok, medtem ko imata delovno sposobni skupini temnopoltih in mešane rase pomemben vpliv le na dolgi rok. Po drugi strani pa delovno sposobno prebivalstvo azijskega/indijskega porekla nima vpliva na varčevanje gospodinjstev niti na dolgi niti na kratki rok. DumitrescuHurlinova analiza panelne vzročnosti je pokazala obojesmerno vzročnost med skupinami azijskega/indijskega in temnopoltega prebivalstva ter prebivalstva mešane rase in varčevanjem gospodinjstev, medtem ko je bila enosmerna vzročnost ugotovljena med belo populacijo in varčevanjem gospodinjstev. demographics working age population aged/elderly population life-cycle hypothesis household saving panel ARDL Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality demografija delovno sposobno prebivalstvo starejše prebivalstvo hipoteza življenjskega cikla varčevanje gospodinjstev panelna ARDL Dumitrescu-Hurlinova panelna vzročnost true false false Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2025-12-18 13:09:11 2025-12-18 13:09:12 2026-02-18 10:02:11 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 0 no. 2 Vol. 23 2025 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2025-06-30 1854-6935 https://doi.org/10.26493/1854-6935.23.121-146 https://ojs.upr.si/index.php/fm/article/download/216/85 1 ab947c42-dc0a-11f0-8f0b-005056ac49c0 https://repozitorij.upr.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=32310 MGT_Nwogbo_Afamefuna_Emmanuel_2025.pdf MGT_Nwogbo_Afamefuna_Emmanuel_2025.pdf 1 7AFA6EF7EB3C4B50EABEEA2189C5A1A2 ea961c6316256717b31c76a8f23298c245c2797b5dff62aa9b42c8eab1e3409b e6a80fe3-dc0a-11f0-8f0b-005056ac49c0 https://repozitorij.upr.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=32311 Založba Univerze na Primorskem 0 0 0