20.500.12556/RUP-22484 Agricultural-Induced Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa A Threshold Regression and ARIMA Forecasting Approach Kmetijsko pogojena okoljska Kuznetsova krivulja za Južno Afriko pristop z regresijo pragov in napovedovanjem ARIMA The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of the agricultural sector on agricultural emissions in South Africa. To this end, we estimate an agricultural-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for South Africa between 1990 and 2022 using conventional and threshold regression frameworks. Our regression estimates reveal a ‘humped-shaped’ relationship between agricultural production and agricultural emissions, whereby agricultural production produces lower agricultural emissions above threshold estimates of 4,876 and 6,100 metric tons of CO2 emissions. Further investigations show that the South African economy has consistently remained above these thresholds since 2010. Moreover, a forecast analysis of the time series using ARIMA models shows that agricultural productionis (emissions are) on an upward (a downward) trajectory. However, the forecasting analysis also shows that the South African agricultural sector is not scheduled to reach the net-zero emissions target by 2050. Altogether, these findings imply that whilst South Africa had followed a trajectory of sustainable development prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trajectory may not be sufficient to attain the 2050 Sustainable Development Goals. Namen članka je preučiti vpliv kmetijskega sektorja na kmetijske emisije v Južni Afriki. V ta namen ocenjujemo kmetijsko pogojeno okoljsko Kuznetsovo krivuljo za Južno Afriko med letoma 1990 in 2022 z uporabo konvencionalnih ter pragovnih regresijskih okvirjev. Naše regresijske ocene razkrivajo »grbasto« razmerje med kmetijsko proizvodnjo in kmetijskimi emisijami, pri čemer kmetijska proizvodnja povzroča nižje kmetijske emisije nad pragovnimi ocenami 4.876 in 6.100 metričnih ton emisij CO₂. Nadaljnje raziskave kažejo, da je južnoafriško gospodarstvo od leta 2010 dosledno ostalo nad temi pragovi. Poleg tega analiza napovedi časovnih vrst z uporabo modelov ARIMA kaže, da je kmetijska proizvodnja na naraščajoči (emisije pa na padajoči) poti. Vendar analiza napovedi tudi kaže, da južnoafriški kmetijski sektor ne bo dosegel cilja neto nič emisij do leta 2050. Skupaj ti izsledki pomenijo, da je Južna Afrika pred pandemijo covida-19 sledila poti trajnostnega razvoja, vendar trenutna pot morda ne bo zadostna za dosego ciljev trajnostnega razvoja do leta 2050. agricultural sector agricultural emissions environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) threshold regression model ARIMA forecasting South Africa kmetijski sektor kmetijske emisije okoljska Kuznetsova krivulja pragovni regresijski model napovedovanje z ARIMA Južna Afrika true false false Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-01-16 12:25:16 2026-01-16 12:25:18 2026-01-17 03:05:30 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 0 no. 4 Vol. 23 2025 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 1854-6935 https://doi.org/10.26493/1854-6935.23.367-388 ZUP_Phiri_Andrew_2025.pdf ZUP_Phiri_Andrew_2025.pdf 1 52527D4C4FF101855CEE61CB74091647 1f4a570366b4734ad95e4359aa881b45716fb828e677efadf69091a53fcc7b25 770542da-f2ce-11f0-8639-005056ac49c0 https://repozitorij.upr.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=32702 Založba Univerze na Primorskem 0 0 0