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What does the future hold? : habitat suitability and conservation implications for rare and widespread plant species under climate changeSara M. Brito Lopes,
Sílvia Castro,
João Loureiro,
Peter Glasnović,
Boštjan Surina,
Mariana Castro, 2026, original scientific article
Abstract: Aim Evaluate how future environmental conditions may reshape plant distributions to identify conservation priorities in a rapidly changing environment, thereby informing effective conservation planning and mitigating the consequences of plant decline for biodiversity, species interactions and ecosystem functioning. Location Europe, with particular emphasis on the Iberian Peninsula. Methods We modelled short-term suitable habitats for rare plant species and their widespread congeners under future climate change scenarios (2041–2060). We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to project future habitat suitability for 22 pairs of congeneric species from 17 plant families, under two climate scenarios, evaluating the overall responses of rare versus widespread taxa. Using SDM, we estimated the future suitable area for each taxon by assessing potential habitat loss, habitat expansion into new areas and stable habitat, as well as the loss of currently occupied areas projected to become environmentally unsuitable under future climate scenarios. Results Our findings show that rare species are expected to lose more suitable habitat than they gain and to experience greater overall habitat loss than their widespread counterparts. However, responses varied among congeneric species pairs: 41% of rare species were projected to expand their suitable habitat, while 36% of widespread species were projected to undergo habitat contraction. Main Conclusions This study provides a practical tool to support proactive conservation planning, including the identification of priority areas for protection, population monitoring, and assisted colonisation. It also shows that currently widespread species may become vulnerable in the near future, reinforcing the need for dynamic, forward-looking conservation strategies in which SDM projections are interpreted alongside evidence on species' reproductive biology, dispersal capacity and genetic diversity.
Keywords: species distribution modelling, climate change, plant conservation
Published in RUP: 02.09.2026; Views: 474; Downloads: 15
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