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International Trade and Economic Growth in an Oil-Dependent Country: Case of Nigeria
Oludayo Adekunle, 2025, original scientific article

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of disaggregated international trade on the economic growth of Nigeria. The data and specified model were analysed with Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Toda-Yamamoto techniques. It was found that both non-oil and oil exports enhance economic growth. However, non-oil and oil imports impede economic growth. Furthermore, overall causality results revealed that while non-oil and oil exports and non-oil imports had bi-directional causality with economic growth, nonoil imports did not have causality with economic growth. Consequently, the government should prioritise export-led policy to facilitate economic performance in Nigeria. Findings emphasised the need for the diversification of the economy for higher economic growth and sustainability inthe long run. The paper enriches the literature on the relationship between international trade and economic growth in Nigeria by adequately disaggregating trade components to reflect the economic structure of the Nigerian economy. Also, it brings new empirical findings on the trade-growth relationship in an oil-dependent developing country. This study can provide a theoretical framework for research in countries that oil dependent.
Keywords: international trade, economic performance, trade policy, developing economies, ARDL, Toda-Yamamoto
Published in RUP: 18.12.2025; Views: 380; Downloads: 1
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The Impact of Demographic Dynamics on Household Saving in Pre-COVID-19 South Africa
Afamefuna Emmanuel Nwogbo, Joel Hinaunye Eita, Sivan Chetty, 2025, original scientific article

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of demographic dynamics on household saving in pre-COVID-19 South Africa, across all nine provinces of South Africa. The study used panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality methods. The results revealed a longrun relationship between demographic dynamics and household saving in South Africa, showing that the White working age population had a significant effect on South Africa’s household saving in both the long-run and short-run, while the Black and Coloured working age population groups significantly impacted household saving only in the long-run. However, the Asian/Indian working age population had no effect on household saving in either the long run or short run. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causality running between Asian/Indian, Black, and Coloured population groups and household saving, while a unidirectional causality was found running from the White population group to household saving.
Keywords: demographics, working age population, aged/elderly population, life-cycle hypothesis, household saving, panel ARDL, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality
Published in RUP: 18.12.2025; Views: 383; Downloads: 0
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