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Do agri-environmental schemes reduce farm greenhouse gas emissions? : evidence from Slovenia
Štefan Bojnec, Imre Fertő, 2026, original scientific article

Abstract: Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture is a key objective of the European Union's Green Deal and is among considerations of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Agri-environmental schemes (AES) are the main CAP instruments to promote more sustainable farming, yet their short-term climate effectiveness remains uncertain. This study provides the first farm-level evidence for Slovenia on whether AES participation reduces GHG emission intensity and whether effects differ across production systems. Using a balanced panel of 227 farms from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (2014–2021), we estimate dynamic treatment effects of AES adoption on net carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions per hectare, applying modern difference-in-differences (DiD) estimators for staggered adoption and extensive robustness checks, including alternative estimators, placebo tests, and dynamic conditioning. Results show that AES adopters had higher pre-adoption emission intensity, consistent with targeted uptake by higher-emission farms. However, estimated reductions in emission intensity during the first one to two years after adoption are small, statistically insignificant, and robust across specifications. These findings suggest that broad, practice-based AES may not deliver immediate, measurable climate benefits at the farm level, either because effects take longer to materialize or because current schemes are insufficiently targeted to high-emission sources. Policies that combine more precise targeting, climate-specific measures, and long-term monitoring may be needed to unlock the full climate mitigation potential of AES.
Keywords: agri-environmental schemes, greenhouse gas emissions, difference-in-differences, agricultural policy evaluation, Slovenia
Published in RUP: 13.04.2026; Views: 435; Downloads: 11
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Agricultural-Induced Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa : A Threshold Regression and ARIMA Forecasting Approach
Andrew Phiri, Rasaq Raimi, 2025, original scientific article

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of the agricultural sector on agricultural emissions in South Africa. To this end, we estimate an agricultural-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for South Africa between 1990 and 2022 using conventional and threshold regression frameworks. Our regression estimates reveal a ‘humped-shaped’ relationship between agricultural production and agricultural emissions, whereby agricultural production produces lower agricultural emissions above threshold estimates of 4,876 and 6,100 metric tons of CO2 emissions. Further investigations show that the South African economy has consistently remained above these thresholds since 2010. Moreover, a forecast analysis of the time series using ARIMA models shows that agricultural productionis (emissions are) on an upward (a downward) trajectory. However, the forecasting analysis also shows that the South African agricultural sector is not scheduled to reach the net-zero emissions target by 2050. Altogether, these findings imply that whilst South Africa had followed a trajectory of sustainable development prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trajectory may not be sufficient to attain the 2050 Sustainable Development Goals.
Keywords: agricultural sector, agricultural emissions, environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), threshold regression model, ARIMA forecasting, South Africa
Published in RUP: 16.01.2026; Views: 677; Downloads: 1
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