1. Education and youth unemployment in South Africa after COVID-19 : evidence from the General Household Survey (GHS)Lana Erasmus, Clement Moyo, Andrew Phiri, 2026, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Youth unemployment remains a major challenge in South Africa, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further disrupted education and labour-market transitions. This study investigates how educational attainment influences youth unemployment in the post-COVID period using the nationally representative 2021 General Household Survey. A sample of 3,652 youths was analysed using logit and probit models across three specifications that incorporate education, demographic factors, and household welfare characteristics. The results show that higher education significantly reduces the likelihood of unemployment, with the strongest effects for diploma and degree holders. However, these effects vary across provinces. Youth in Free State, Northwest, and Limpopo experience high unemployment even with higher qualifications, indicating weak regional labour markets. A sensitivity analysis reveals that returns to education are lower in mining-dependent provinces. The study concludes that expanding education alone is insufficient without addressing provincial labour-market constraints.
Ključne besede: education, youth unemployment, General Household Survey (GHS) data, post COVID-19, South Africa
Objavljeno v RUP: 24.08.2026; Ogledov: 281; Prenosov: 5
 Celotno besedilo (242,81 KB)
Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
2. Agricultural-Induced Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa : A Threshold Regression and ARIMA Forecasting ApproachAndrew Phiri, Rasaq Raimi, 2025, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of the agricultural sector on agricultural emissions in South Africa. To this end, we estimate an agricultural-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for South Africa between 1990 and 2022 using conventional and threshold regression frameworks. Our regression estimates reveal a ‘humped-shaped’ relationship between agricultural production and agricultural emissions, whereby agricultural production produces lower agricultural emissions above threshold estimates of 4,876 and 6,100 metric tons of CO2 emissions. Further investigations show that the South African economy has consistently remained above these thresholds since 2010. Moreover, a forecast analysis of the time series using ARIMA models shows that agricultural productionis (emissions are) on an upward (a downward) trajectory. However, the forecasting analysis also shows that the South African agricultural sector is not scheduled to reach the net-zero emissions target by 2050. Altogether, these findings imply that whilst South Africa had followed a trajectory of sustainable development prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trajectory may not be sufficient to attain the 2050 Sustainable Development Goals.
Ključne besede: agricultural sector, agricultural emissions, environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), threshold regression model, ARIMA forecasting, South Africa
Objavljeno v RUP: 16.01.2026; Ogledov: 845; Prenosov: 5
Celotno besedilo (1,03 MB) |
3. Can Increased Intra-Continental Trade Partnerships Diversify Export Baskets in Africa?Sibusiswe Mchani, Andrew Phiri, 2025, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The study investigates the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement in fostering diversified export baskets through increased intra-continental trade partnerships. It aims to evaluate how these trade partnership influence export diversification within Africa. Using network analysis, it develops three indices to measure the degree, closeness, and prestige of trading partners across 54 African countries from 2000 to 2020. These indices, along with traditional estimators, reveal two key findings. Firstly, the quality of trade partnerships, focusing on ‘who’ a country trades with, holds more significance than quantity. Secondly, there is a geographical imbalance, where the effect of trade partnerships turns negative for countries with higher product diversification. In conclusion, while intra-continental trade diversification shows promise, more advanced African nations may experience diminishing returns, suggesting a need for expanding trade networks beyond the continent for sustained export diversification.
Ključne besede: trade partner diversification, product diversification, AFCFTA agreement
Objavljeno v RUP: 18.12.2025; Ogledov: 553; Prenosov: 6
Celotno besedilo (624,36 KB)
Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
