1. What does the future hold? : habitat suitability and conservation implications for rare and widespread plant species under climate changeSara M. Brito Lopes, Sílvia Castro, João Loureiro, Peter Glasnović, Boštjan Surina, Mariana Castro, 2026, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Aim Evaluate how future environmental conditions may reshape plant distributions to identify conservation priorities in a rapidly changing environment, thereby informing effective conservation planning and mitigating the consequences of plant decline for biodiversity, species interactions and ecosystem functioning. Location Europe, with particular emphasis on the Iberian Peninsula. Methods We modelled short-term suitable habitats for rare plant species and their widespread congeners under future climate change scenarios (2041–2060). We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to project future habitat suitability for 22 pairs of congeneric species from 17 plant families, under two climate scenarios, evaluating the overall responses of rare versus widespread taxa. Using SDM, we estimated the future suitable area for each taxon by assessing potential habitat loss, habitat expansion into new areas and stable habitat, as well as the loss of currently occupied areas projected to become environmentally unsuitable under future climate scenarios. Results Our findings show that rare species are expected to lose more suitable habitat than they gain and to experience greater overall habitat loss than their widespread counterparts. However, responses varied among congeneric species pairs: 41% of rare species were projected to expand their suitable habitat, while 36% of widespread species were projected to undergo habitat contraction. Main Conclusions This study provides a practical tool to support proactive conservation planning, including the identification of priority areas for protection, population monitoring, and assisted colonisation. It also shows that currently widespread species may become vulnerable in the near future, reinforcing the need for dynamic, forward-looking conservation strategies in which SDM projections are interpreted alongside evidence on species' reproductive biology, dispersal capacity and genetic diversity.
Ključne besede: species distribution modelling, climate change, plant conservation
Objavljeno v RUP: 02.09.2026; Ogledov: 96; Prenosov: 2
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2. Plants in danger : floral and other plant traits as drivers of vulnerability in Mediterranean countriesAmparo Lázaro, Anastasia Stefanaki, Martha Charitonidou, Joana Cursach, Maria Panitsa, Ioannis Bazos, Rosa Ranalli, Mauro Fois, Marta Galloni, Gianluigi Bacchetta, Živa Fišer, 2026, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Plants with complex floral morphologies are adapted to be pollinated by restricted pollinator assemblages and may suffer pollinator limitation. Understanding how floral traits and other variables relate to plant vulnerability can provide a powerful tool for predicting the conservation status and prioritizing the assessment of plants with scarce field data. Using circa 3000 records of rare and threatened (sensu IUCN) entomophilous plant taxa from seven Mediterranean countries, we evaluated how six floral traits and other eight intrinsic and extrinsic variables were related to plant vulnerability (less vs. more threatened plants). Besides, we analyzed 29 experts' opinions regarding the floral traits most related to floral complexity. Floral shape, reproductive unit, and flowering duration were good vulnerability indicators. Taxa with lip- and flag-shaped flowers were the most threatened, which agrees with the opinion of experts who considered lip- and flag-shaped flowers to have more complex morphologies. Also, plants with cylindrical inflorescences or solitary flowers were more threatened than those with flat-spherical inflorescences; and longer flowering durations reduced the probability of being threatened. Regarding extrinsic variables, coastal and freshwater habitats, i.e. habitats heavily impacted by human activities, had the highest percentage of highly threatened taxa. Yet, plant vulnerability decreased with maximum elevation and total distribution range. These results may serve as a basis for managers and practitioners when field data are scarce or unavailable, so that, depending on their traits, species could be provisionally listed in Red Lists as deserving priority for assessment to ascertain conservation status and actions.
Ključne besede: floral complexity, floral shape, flowering duration, functional reproductive unit, plant conservation, red data books, threatened Mediterranean vascular flora
Objavljeno v RUP: 02.12.2025; Ogledov: 861; Prenosov: 5
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